Research

My research papers are centered on applications in developing countries, specifically Pakistan and Afghanistan, addressing questions on the relationship between infrastructure and conflict. This includes examining how foreign aid in road construction affects local political violence, the role of mobile phone access in insurgent activity, and the impact of conflict on healthcare access. Additionally, I am studying the environmental consequences of infrastructure projects. 

Working Papers: 

• "Foreign Aid and Conflict: Evidence from the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Pakistan" (JMP) Link 

presented at CES North America Annual Meeting 2025, DevSouth-Development Economics in the South Workshop 2024, SEA 93rd Annual Meeting 2023, CREED-Carolina Region Empirical Economics Day 2023, WEAI 98th Annual Conference 2023,  SEEDS-South East Exchange of Development Studies 2023

Abstract: 

This paper examines the impact of large-scale infrastructure aid on political violence, focusing on Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects in Pakistan. While the relationship between aid and armed conflict has been widely studied, the effects of Chinese aid to developing countries remain less understood. Using an event study design on district-level violent conflict data in Pakistan from 2010 to 2020, I find that violent incidents decreased in districts along the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) during the month of construction and shortly after. However, when examining patterns on an annual scale, there is increased volatility of violence in subsequent years, suggesting that the initial reduction in conflict is temporary. I explore the channels through which aid impacts conflict, showing that large-scale, government-supported transportation projects, carried out under military protection, initially reduce conflict but return to previous levels over time. These findings highlight significant short-term effects of infrastructure aid on local political violence but suggest no enduring decrease. This study also provides the first rigorous evidence on the social impacts of BRI projects, a growing but understudied form of foreign aid, specifically addressing impacts on local violence.

• "Cell Phone Access and Insurgent Violence: Evidence from a Radio Propagation Model in Afghanistan" Link (with Ryan Ellis and Robert M. Gonzalez) submitted to American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 

Abstract: 

We provide evidence that mobile phone coverage lowers insurgent violence using two separate empirical designs in Afghanistan. First, we propose a novel regression discontinuity (RD) design for multiple, unknown cutoffs that uses signal strength as the forcing variable. We estimate signal strength for each cell of a 1X1 kilometer grid using a high-resolution radio wave propagation model. Second, we employ a difference-in-differences design leveraging the staggered rollout of cell towers for the largest operator in Afghanistan. We explore insurgent coordination and information sharing as possible mechanisms. We find weak evidence of spatial and temporal changes in the clustering of attacks following the installation of a tower in a district. However, we find evidence of coverage having larger effects near populated areas, primary roads, during morning hours, and a sharp increase in call traffic preceding certain attacks, all suggesting that information sharing is a key mechanism. 

• "Violent Conflict and Demand for Healthcare in Afghanistan" (with Olga Shemyakina) 

presented at 9th Annual Conference of the Society for Economic Measurement 2024, SEEDS-South East Exchange of Development Studies 2024, SEA 93rd Annual Meeting 2023, Atlanta Workshop on Public Policy and Child Well-Being (PPCW) 2023

        Abstract: 

This paper examines population demand for healthcare under conflict using the case of Afghanistan. We find that violent conflict is associated with a reduction in healthcare utilization by female patients and parents, primarily mothers, with young children. We combine daily data on the conflict in Afghanistan from ACLED and GTD datasets with data on healthcare use by women and children using visit date and facility location from the 2019-2019 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS-VII) collected at the facility level from November 2018 to January 2019. This paper contributes to the literature on the impact of shocks on the demand for healthcare, particularly the relationship between conflict exposure and measures of healthcare utilization. We seek to enhance an understanding of healthcare-seeking behavior in Afghanistan from the demand perspective and to provide insights into how individuals, in particular pregnant women and children, access healthcare services in the context of Afghanistan.

*Drafts and/or slides available upon request. 

Works in Progress: 

• "Relationship between Transport Infrastructure, Economic Growth, and Transport Emissions in Pakistan" 

Abstract: 

This project investigates the environmental and economic impacts of transport infrastructure development under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). By analyzing both grid-level and district-level data, I explore the interplay between economic growth, measured via satellite-based nightlight intensity, and environmental costs, captured through PM2.5 and CO2 emissions. Using spatial and temporal analysis, the study evaluates how transport infrastructure projects affect air quality during construction and post-completion phases. The findings aim to inform policymakers about the trade-offs between fostering economic development and maintaining environmental sustainability.